YX 3639 · IAD → CVG

took off 10:21 PM ET · landed 11:23 PM ET (scheduled 10:23 PM ET → 12:23 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CVG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling10,314 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3639 · IAD → CVG

Odds over time

How late did it get to CVG?