Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3691
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
YX 3691 · YOW → EWR
departs 6:10 PM EDT · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 35%
Sat 10/31 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave YOW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YOW (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
EWR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.