Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
YX 4415 · RDU → ORD
departs 1:50 PM ET · arrives 3:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 29%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 10,314 ft Visibility 8.85714 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.