YX 4468 · ORD → DCA

departs 6:19 AM CT · arrives 9:33 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4468 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?