YX 4516 · DCA → ORD

took off 10:20 PM ET · landed 10:51 PM CT (scheduled 10:29 PM ET → 11:39 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4516 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?