YX 4776 · ORD → MSN

took off 11:19 PM CT · landed 11:49 PM CT (scheduled 11:10 PM CT → 12:16 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to MSN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4776 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSN?