YX 4778 · PHL → IAH

departs 10:33 AM ET · arrives 1:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4778 · PHL → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?