Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 4778 · PHL → IAH
departs 10:34 AM ET · arrives 1:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt
Ceiling 7,000 ft
Visibility 6 mi
Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.