YX 4790 · DCA → ILM

departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 10:02 AM ET

Your aircraft is N422YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4487 from LGA: landed 7:14 AM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4790 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?