YX 5832 · DTW → SDF

took off 7:53 PM ET · landed 8:44 PM ET (scheduled 7:45 PM ET → 9:12 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SDF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SDF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5832 · DTW → SDF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SDF?