Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AVIANCA ECUADOR · FLIGHT 2K 7397
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
2K 7397 · JFK → UIO
departs 1:20 AM ET · arrives 6:29 AM -05
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at UIO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to UIO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
UIO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.