Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AVIANCA ECUADOR · FLIGHT 2K 7397
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
2K 7397 · JFK → UIO
departs 1:16 AM ET · arrives 6:54 AM -05
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at UIO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to UIO?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1am departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
UIO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.