Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5345 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

9E 5345 · DTW → DSM

departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 5:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5345 · DTW → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?