9E 5428 · DCA → RDU

departs 10:01 PM ET · arrives 11:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5428 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?