Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5491 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

9E 5491 · MSP → MCI

departs 3:04 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day

↑ 3pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.19 in

MCI (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5491 · MSP → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?