Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 504 · KOA → OGG
departs 7:00 PM HT · arrives 8:20 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 27%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at KOA that day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
KOA (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.