Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 504 · KOA → OGG
departs 6:59 PM HT · arrives 8:18 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 41%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at KOA that day
↓
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
KOA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.