Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 515 · MKK → OGG
departs 6:21 PM HT · arrives 7:21 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.