Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 515 · MKK → OGG
departs 6:20 PM HT · arrives 7:19 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 42%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
↓
9X's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.