Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 519
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 519 · MKK → HNL
departs 11:01 AM HT · arrives 12:02 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 3.0 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
11am departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.95 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.