Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 519
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
9X 519 · MKK → HNL
departs 12:10 AM HT · arrives 1:09 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 10/28 46%
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MKK is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.