9X 519 · MKK → HNL

took off 10:48 AM HT · landed 11:09 AM HT (scheduled 10:58 AM HT → 11:57 AM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HNL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MKK that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MKK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.52 in

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.66 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 519 · MKK → HNL

Odds over time

How late did it get to HNL?