Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 528 · HNL → MKK
departs 12:38 PM HT · arrives 1:23 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 3.0 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
12pm departures from HNL are often late
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.