Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 528 · HNL → MKK
departs 12:36 PM HT · arrives 1:36 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28 37%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from HNL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MKK (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.