Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 538 · HNL → MKK
departs 10:54 AM HT · arrives 11:48 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.