Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 538 · HNL → MKK
departs 10:53 AM HT · arrives 11:46 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi forecast at MKK that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MKK (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.