Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 541 · MKK → HNL
departs 10:29 AM HT · arrives 11:30 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sun 11/1 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
10am departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.