Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 541 · MKK → HNL
departs 10:27 AM HT · arrives 11:27 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sun 11/1 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MKK that day
↓
10am departures from MKK are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.