Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 578 · HNL → MKK
departs 6:51 AM HT · arrives 7:52 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 6%
Sat 10/31 7%
Sun 11/1 6%
Mon 11/2 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
6am departures from HNL are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.40 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 3.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.