Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 578 · HNL → MKK
departs 6:50 AM HT · arrives 7:43 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 6%
Sat 10/31 7%
Sun 11/1 6%
Mon 11/2 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
6am departures from HNL are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.