Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 609 · OGG → MKK
departs 8:31 AM HT · arrives 9:31 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 9%
Mon 11/2 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
8%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 3.0 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
8am departures from OGG are usually not late
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.05 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.