Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 609 · OGG → MKK
departs 8:30 AM HT · arrives 9:29 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Mon 11/2 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi forecast at MKK that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
8am departures from OGG are usually not late
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.