Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 786 · MKK → HNL
departs 2:06 PM HT · arrives 2:42 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 37%
Sun 11/1 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
8%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
2pm departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.