Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 786 · MKK → HNL
departs 2:05 PM HT · arrives 2:55 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at HNL that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
9X's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.