Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 857 · MKK → HNL
departs 2:36 PM HT · arrives 3:37 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 33%
Sat 10/31 26%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
2pm departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.