Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 857 · MKK → HNL
departs 2:32 PM HT · arrives 3:38 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 10/28 44%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 26%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.16 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.