AA 1040 · DFW → JFK

took off 2:35 PM CT · landed 6:32 PM ET (scheduled 2:22 PM CT → 6:49 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1040 · DFW → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?