Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1274 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 1274 · CLT → PHX

departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1274 · CLT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?