Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1829 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 1829 · DCA → JAX

departs 2:58 PM ET · arrives 5:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1829 · DCA → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?