Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1861 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 1861 · ORD → SAN

departs 7:04 PM CT · arrives 9:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1861 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?