Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1861 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1861 · ORD → SAN

departs 7:12 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1861 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?