AA 1861 · ORD → SAN

departs 7:03 PM CT · arrives 9:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±0 pts +43 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
41%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1861 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?