Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2031 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 2031 · CLT → LGA

departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 12:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8.64286 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2031 · CLT → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?