AA 2389 · ORD → YYC

took off 10:05 AM CT · landed 12:18 PM MDT (scheduled 10:03 AM CT → 12:40 PM MDT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YYC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at YYC that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2389 · ORD → YYC

Odds over time

How late did it get to YYC?