Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 2415 · CLT → EWR

departs 6:54 PM ET · arrives 8:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2415 · CLT → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?