Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2522 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 2522 · DFW → SFO

departs 9:06 PM CT · arrives 11:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2522 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?