Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2761 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 2761 · DFW → STL

departs 4:27 PM CT · arrives 6:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2761 · DFW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?