Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3133 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 3133 · ORD → MSP

departs 1:14 PM CT · arrives 2:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3133 · ORD → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?