tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3231 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 3231 · PHX → DCA

departs 1:18 PM MT · arrives 8:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
31% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.7d 2d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to DCA?

  1. On time or early
    68%
  2. 15–30 min late
    17%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    5%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    7%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.