Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3259 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 3259 · MIA → DFW

departs 4:42 PM ET · arrives 6:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±6 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,633 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3259 · MIA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?